OKBET Tennis Picks Two Long Odds Bets for US Open Glory

OKBET Tennis Picks: Two Long Odds Bets for US Open Glory

The final major of the season, the 2022 US Open, begins on Monday in New York, and betting sites believe it will be one of the most open slams in recent memory.

Novak Djokovic will not be in New York because he is still in a self-imposed exile due to his unvaccinated status, which means he is not permitted to enter the country.

Meanwhile, most of the market leaders are under scrutiny as the tournament approaches.

The subplot to all of this is that the world number one ranking is up for grabs for several players, and Casper Ruud could be world number one in two weeks.

Medvedev leads the field at the US Open.

Due to Djokovic’s absence, the defending US Open champion Daniil Medvedev is the market leader.

However, Medvedev’s price of 3.5 with tennis betting sites appears to be too low given that he has only won one tournament since his 2021 New York victory.

And that title was an ATP 250 in Los Cabos – the Russian has lost five of the six finals he’s played since winning the US Open, and he doesn’t appear to be in the same kind of form that he’s arrived in New York in previous seasons.

Recently, opponents such as Nick Kyrgios and Stefanos Tsitsipas have used a serve and volley approach that has disrupted Medvedev’s preferred baseline rhythm, so many others will undoubtedly try it against him.

And, after being drawn in what appears to be the tougher top half of the draw, he could face Kyrgios again in round four in New York.

Can Nadal overcome his injury woes?

Rafael Nadal is available at around 5.0 in the US Open tennis betting odds, and while Rafa won the Australian Open and the French Open this year, has he used up his miracle dust for 2022?

Rafa tore an abdominal muscle at Wimbledon and has only played one match since – a loss to surprise Cincinnati champion Borna Coric – and it’s a tall order for him to last the fortnight, but it was the same in Melbourne and Paris.

Nadal’s sheer determination and will to win means that he cannot be written off in majors – to do so would be foolish – but 5.0 is too short for me to be interested, despite his recent success here.

Since losing to Lucas Pouille in 2016, Nadal has won his last 17 completed matches in a row at the US Open, so whatever condition he arrives in, he’s still a serious contender.

His draw in what appears to be the weaker bottom half is a plus, but another slight concern about him is that Nadal’s partner is currently in hospital awaiting the birth of their first child, so it’s not impossible that Nadal will decide to skip this major.

Alcaraz is out of shape as the year’s final major approaches.

So there are doubts about Medvedev and Nadal, and I’m not convinced that third favourite Carlos Alcaraz is coming to New York in high spirits, having struggled recently to replicate his early-season success.

Alcaraz lost to Tommy Paul and Cam Norrie in the two Masters 1000 events on North American hard courts this summer, and he didn’t win either of the clay court events he played after Wimbledon.

More concerning than his temporary form is Alcaraz’s admission that he struggled to deal with pressure “for the first time” in his set and 4-1 loss to Paul. On decent-paced hard courts, I still believe Alcaraz can be rushed by power.

The young Spaniard will be happy with his Q3 draw, but the in-form Borna Coric is in his section, and he’s too short for me at around 6.0 on Betfair.

Prices for Kyrgios, Tsitsipas, and Sinner are too low.

The next contender, Nick Kyrgios, does not appeal at 9.0 with Unibet either, as his dedication and fitness/stamina make him an unlikely champion. For me to back Kyrgios to win a Grand Slam, the odds would have to be much higher.

He might fancy his chances against Medvedev, whom Kyrgios defeated in Montreal a few weeks ago.

He’d have a good chance of winning a round four match, but it’s difficult to see him going all the way to the title.

We nearly found a nice 19.0 winner in Cincy with Stefanos Tsitsipas, with the Greek landing the place money but failing in the final as the favorite, and is there any value in backing him at a shorter price to win a bigger tournament?

Not for me, and Tsitsipas’s calm demeanor in accepting defeat to Coric in Cincinnati, combined with his poor record at the US Open and the fact that he’s never won a main level outdoor hard court tournament, makes it easy to dismiss him this fortnight.

Jannik Sinner is up next, and he was looking in great shape a few weeks ago after an impressive clay win in Umag following a very good Wimbledon, but his form has since collapsed, as it often does.

So far, his hard court summer has consisted of two shaky victories over Miomir Kecmanovic (by retirement) and Thanasi Kokkinakis (in a final set tie-break) and two defeats.

While it’s possible that he’ll regain his form, he’s having too many bad days right now for my liking.

I’m also not convinced Sinner can keep up the pace over the best-of-five sets for a fortnight in New York, so Sinner’s 17.0 availability doesn’t entice me.

Berrettini on the Back at Flushing Meadows

Sinner’s fellow Italian, Matteo Berrettini, is at a much more appealing 29.0 with Labrokes.

Berrettini will arrive in New York in similar bad form as Sinner, but at the price and with a track record at the US Open – where he’s won 12 of his last 15 matches (losses to Nadal, Djokovic, and Andrey Rublev) – I’m willing to take a chance.

Berrettini was as short as 8.0 to win Wimbledon a few months ago, and while he’s clearly at his best on grass, he’s also got hard court form – he just needs to find it at the right time.

And it’s entirely possible that he can do just that this fortnight at a tournament where he’s clearly at ease, so if there’s any value in this men’s draw, Berrettini is near the top of the list, despite his draw in the top half.

The Italian’s early draw for the first couple of rounds appears to be favorable, and that may be all he needs to regain his form.

Avoid Auger-Aliassime and Fritz in New York.

Berrettini appeals to me more at that price than Felix Auger-Aliassime at 26.0 and Taylor Fritz at around the same price.

I took Auger-Aliassime at 51.0 for the US during the Australian Open, but he hasn’t built on his fantastic performance in Melbourne or his first ATP Tour title in Rotterdam a month later.

It’s all been rather disappointing since then, and his latest nerve-wracking shocker in Montreal suggests that he still has a long way to go before he can lift a major trophy.

And Fritz’s price is too low as well, considering we had him at 151.0 each-way to win Wimbledon, and after exposing all of his major flaws against an injured Nadal in the quarter finals, I’m not seeing value in 21.0 this fortnight.

Fritz could and should have beaten Nadal that day at the All England Club, but he was unwilling (or unable) to change his go-to play of cross-court backhand, big forehand, and mostly staying on the baseline.

Fritz would have won that match if he had gone down the line with his backhand to Nadal’s backhand side (which Rafa was struggling to move to) and approached the net to finish with a volley, but he doesn’t seem comfortable at the net.

That’s something he needs to work on, as evidenced by his failure to win a set (and ultimately the match) against Daniil Medvedev in Cincinnati with his go-to game.

Hungary Hurkacz Is Worth A Chance Both Ways

Instead, I’ll take Hubert Hurkacz each-way at 41.0 with bet365 to carry my money this fortnight, along with Berrettini (and Felix from ante-post).

Hurkacz was around 15.0 to win Wimbledon with Djokovic in the field a few months ago, and after a round one exit, he’s now a backable price to win the US Open.

Hurkacz is a Masters champion (Miami) and runner-up (Montreal) on outdoor hard, and while he hasn’t yet shown his best form at the US Open, I like his draw in Q3 against Alcaraz, Coric, and Sinner.

Q3 appears to be winnable for Hurkacz, and if he does, he may face someone like Cam Norrie in the semi-finals if Nadal isn’t fit and/or doesn’t last the full two weeks for personal reasons.

Norrie appears to be the most obvious alternative to Nadal in Q4, with Andrey Rublev, Diego Schwartzman, and Denis Shapovalov all being overlooked.

However, I don’t see much value in Norrie, who is as short as 41.0 in conditions that may be a little too fast for him (given his grinding play style in likely hot and humid conditions).


So, in what appears to be an unusually open men’s draw at a major, I’ll take a chance on Berrettini for one point each-way at 29.0 and Hurkacz for one point each-way at 41.0.

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