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Today’s NHL Best Bets: Odds, Predictions, and Picks for December 22nd
Best Bets for Thursday: Washington Capitals -115
Betstamp, a third-party bet tracking app, is where I keep track of all my bets. After the games begin, the bets become apparent. I keep my own personal records as well, and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to a variety of factors, but they should be very close.
Wins: 45 48 units were lost. -4.77 units won -10% return on investment
I use DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook for all game lines, but I will occasionally use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by a stake size recommendation. All stats obtained through Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Ottawa Senators (-115) vs. Washington Capitals (-105)
Washington Capitals at -115
1.15 units of risk
1 unit can be won.
On Thursday, when the Capitals play the Senators in Ottawa, Alex Ovechkin will have another chance to make history. Washington has won seven of its last eight games and has really shown its mettle in the last month. Despite the fact that none of their injured players have returned to the lineup, the Capitals have ranked first in expected goals and second in goals (for and against) since November 20th.
However, that could change in the coming days, as goaltender Darcy Kuemper announced that he has been cleared to return to the crease. There’s no guarantee he’ll start in Ottawa (the Capitals play the Jets on Friday), but even if Charlie Lindgren starts, Washington is a good bet to win at -115.
Predicting Ottawa’s starting goaltender is also difficult because the Senators are playing five games in seven days, including a game against the Red Wings on Friday.
The Senators have an excellent power play, but only one team has scored fewer even-strength goals since November 1st (24 games), and they have only defeated one playoff team in the last two months. The Senators don’t have much of a home-ice advantage, either, and Washington is a -128 favorite in my model. Injuries remain a concern, but the road team should win 56% of the time.
Notes: The Senators are hoping that forward Tim Stutzle will be able to play on Thursday and/or Friday. T.J. Oshie of the Washington Capitals will not play.
Toronto Maple Leafs (+240) at Philadelphia Flyers (-300)
Last weekend, Toronto lost two games in a row for the first time in over a month, but they rebounded with a dominant 4-1 win over the Lightning to start the week, and now they’ll look to go into the holidays with a win over Philadelphia. It should also be a simple victory. In their last 18 games, the Maple Leafs have only lost five. In contrast, the Flyers have only won four of their last 21 games.
According to my model, the home team will win roughly 77 percent of the time, but only if Carter Hart is in goal for the Flyers. If it’s Samuel Ersson, he’ll be making his NHL debut after being drafted in the fifth round. Philadelphia is scheduled to play the Hurricanes on Friday, so Ersson could start one of the two games. I mean, the Flyers don’t really have anything to lose. This season is a wash.
The Maple Leafs will begin with Ilya Samsonov.
also read: OKBET Top 3 NHL Betting Odds, Predictions and Picks for Dec. 20 Game
New York Rangers (+140) vs. New York Islanders (-160)
The Rangers’ seven-game win streak was snapped in Pittsburgh on Tuesday in a 3-2 loss, and they’re not only looking to get back in the win column, but also to get things right at home. This season, the Blueshirts have the 10th worst goal differential at home, and their inability to score has been a major contributor to their 7-11 record. So far this season, the Rangers have scored 2.8 goals per 60 minutes at Madison Square Garden.
Scoring may be difficult on Thursday as well, as the Islanders, despite their flaws, are a top-10 defensive team. That is primarily due to Ilya Sorokin, and to a lesser extent, Semyon Varlamov. The Islanders rank in the bottom ten in shot attempts against and in the bottom five in expected goals against.
It’s an intriguing dynamic between two long-time rivals, but the game is reasonably priced if Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin start for their respective clubs. The Rangers play their fourth game in six days on Thursday, and the Islanders play again on Friday, so while Shesterkin and Sorokin appear to be the favorites, nothing is certain at this point.
Boston Bruins (+190) at Winnipeg Jets (-220)
Winnipeg must travel to Washington on Friday to face the Capitals, making it difficult to predict who will start in goal. Connor Hellebuyck missed one game due to illness, but he is feeling better and will play one, if not both, of Winnipeg’s two games before the holidays. However, because Boston is the best team in hockey, I believe it is safe to assume Hellebuyck will be in goal unless the team states otherwise.
Due to injuries to key players (Blake Wheeler and Nikolaj Ehlers), the Jets will need all the help they can get to beat the Bruins, and starting Rittich almost guarantees that they will not. Anything is possible, but if the Bruins bring their best game, the Jets will have a difficult time keeping up. Winnipeg is a good team, but the Bruins are healthy and should be able to control the game.
However, the starting goaltender for Boston is unknown at this time, making it difficult to put a price on this matchup. On Friday, the Bruins face the Devils, and head coach Jim Montgomery may opt to start Jeremy Swayman.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (+105) (-125)
Pittsburgh played well earlier this week against Carolina, but they couldn’t hold on to a one-goal lead late in the game. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, will most likely look different with Tristan Jarry in goal, as he has been the best goaltender in hockey for over a month.
The Hurricanes, on the other hand, may have a different look this time around, as forward Sebastian Aho is expected to return to the lineup. The team has not confirmed that he will play, but based on head coach Rob Brind ‘Amour’s most recent comments, it appears that he will. However, given the impact Aho can have on a game, his potential return will loom over this market until the head coach clarifies things.
Los Angeles Kings (-110) at Calgary Flames (-110)
Calgary has won two in a row after losing five in a row, but both victories have come against the San Jose Sharks. Otherwise, the team has been a huge disappointment, and back-to-back wins over the lowly Sharks aren’t going to generate much excitement. It also shouldn’t. The Flames are still a good hockey team, but they’re a lot closer to average than I expected before the season began, and they’re currently 5-10 on the road.
The Kings are an average, if not above-average, team, but goaltending has been and will continue to be an issue. Jonathan Quick is getting older, and Pheonix Copley will not save the team. This should be a close game, but Calgary is a bit more well-structured, and my model has them as a -115 favorite despite their own goaltending issues.
Seattle Kraken (-120) at Vancouver Canucks (EVEN) Canucks fans wanted Spencer Martin to get more starts, and when Thatcher Demko got hurt, they got their wish. However, things haven’t gone as planned, with the team allowing 4.5 goals per game on average over their last six games. Vancouver’s offense has also been hit-or-miss recently.
The Canucks have scored one goal or fewer in five of their last nine games. They can still score in bunches, but as evidenced by their last two games (two goals combined), scoring goals without Elias Pettersson in the lineup is more difficult.
Pettersson has missed the last two games due to illness, and it doesn’t appear that he will be able to return in time for Thursday’s game, according to a recent report. Of course, never say never until the team has ruled him out completely.
The Kraken are a difficult team to predict, but I’d like to think they can beat the Canucks here. My model has them as a -115 favorite, but that could change depending on which goaltender head coach Bruce Boudreau chooses.
Notes: Vancouver plays Edmonton on Friday, so Martin may be forced to start both games. Arturs Silovs, who has never played in the NHL, is the only other option.
