Week 16 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, with a game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Jets (-1.5, 38). The Jaguars are coming off an upset victory over the Cowboys and have won three of their last four games. Meanwhile, the Jets have lost three straight and four of their last five games.
What can we expect in terms of betting for Thursday’s game?
Fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, as well as ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth Walder, ESPN analyst Jason Fitz, and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz, provide their top plays for the matchup.
Despite losing three straight games, the Jets (-1.5, 38) are favorites over the Jaguars in Thursday’s game. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have won two straight and are only one game behind the Titans in the AFC South (+120 to win). Do you think Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars can win on the road in East Rutherford, or do you think the Jets can snap their three-game losing streak and keep their playoff hopes alive?
Marks: Give me the Jags and the points, as well as the Jags in a six-team teaser at +7.5. Jacksonville is coming off a thrilling overtime victory over the Cowboys. Lawrence has been on a roll recently, throwing 14 touchdowns and only one interception in the last six weeks.
The Jaguars offense has averaged more than 7 yards per play, and they looked strong against the Cowboys defense. The Jets will likely be without Quinnen Williams for the second week in a row as they start Zach Wilson, who has a pedestrian 42% completion percentage in the red zone.
Snellings: I’ll take the Jaguars with the points as well. They have been playing much better of late and currently have the much stronger quarterback play. The Jets’ best chance is for their defense to keep the game low-scoring and hope that they can win in the end. The best-case scenario for them would be a close game in which the points could be crucial, even if the Jets win.
Jaguars +1.5, according to Moody’s. Lawrence and the Jaguars have gained some ground over the last three games, ranking fourth in total yards per game and fourth in points per game. Despite having a formidable defense, the Jets have lost their last three games. In their last six games, the Jaguars are 4-1-1 against the spread. Jacksonville has a chance to win this game outright.
Schatz: I’m cold. MetLife Stadium will not be particularly cold for this game! The weather forecast calls for rain but temperatures in the 40s. That massive blast of cold air that will affect this week’s games won’t arrive until Friday or even Saturday morning.
So Lawrence, please go over this passing yards prop with me. He’s on a roll and has receivers who won’t be covered by Reed or Gardner, most notably Evan Engram at tight end. I’m also expecting the Jets to score against a poor Jaguars defense so that Jacksonville doesn’t take the ball away from Lawrence late in the game to run out the clock.
Snellings: I think Lawrence will go over 224.5 yards passing. Even with the Jets’ strong defense, that’s a low total for a quarterback who has averaged 280.0 yards over his last six games, going over 224.5 yards in five of them.
Lawrence has surpassed 224.5 passing yards in seven of his last ten games, according to Moody. Lawrence is unlikely to throw for 300 yards again, as he has in three of his last four games, but 224.5 passing yards seems excessive. The Jets’ pass rush will suffer as a result of Quinnen Williams’ calf injury. Williams is a game-time decision, but he is clearly not at 100%. Lawrence has played well this season when not under pressure. Even though it will be rainy and cold, high winds are not expected.
The Jets and Jaguars are both on the outside looking in when it comes to making the playoffs. New York has a +400 rating, while Jacksonville has a +125 rating. Do you like the odds on either of these teams, and who do you think will make a run?
Kezirian: I believe there is marginal value on Jacksonville at +125. They would almost certainly need Tennessee to lose to Dallas in Week 17 in order to set up a favorable situation against the Titans at home in Week 18. However, there are numerous other possibilities, so given how Lawrence and Jacksonville are currently performing, this is a team I’d like to back.
Schatz: According to our current playoff odds simulation, the Jets make the playoffs 25% of the time, which puts a little value on the +400 if you want to play that. Our numbers believe Zach Wilson is a little underrated because, while he does make some bad plays, he has done so while facing the league’s toughest schedule of opposing pass defenses this season.
That’s why, despite quarterback uncertainty and injuries at running back and on the offensive line, the Jets’ offense ranks as high as 19th in DVOA. The Jaguars make the playoffs 44% of the time, which works out to +125, so there is no value there.
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